Greater Victoria had the largest difference between births and deaths out of any Canadian municipality in 2021/22.

According to new data from Statistics Canada, 4,222 people died in Greater Victoria between July 1, 2021 and June 30, 2022, but only 2,888 were born—meaning that, looking at the natural population growth alone, the region lost a net 1,334 people in that time. That’s not taking into account other factors like migration, immigration, and emigration—which contributed to a net gain of 7,700 people—but it further solidifies something we already know: that Victorians, who are also older than the national average, are having fewer kids. 

In 2020, Greater Victoria’s fertility rate—the rate at which people within the typical age of fertility are having children—fell to 0.95 births per woman, the lowest in the country. Don Kerr, a demographer who teaches at Kings University College at Western University told Capital Daily in 2021 that he had never heard of a fertility rate falling below 1.0 in any city across Canada before. 

If emigration and immigration are ignored, the region would need a fertility rate of 2.1 to get the population stable (more births than deaths). 

Across Canada, the fertility rate has also been falling for decades, reaching an unprecedented low of 1.4 in 2020. The country as a whole hasn’t met the 2.1 "rate of replacement" since 1971.

Where are all the young families? The Westshore.

The majority of Greater Victoria communities are experiencing more deaths than births—except for those in the Westshore. 

In 2022, Langford and the Highlands had a combined 542 births, double the number of deaths last year, according to provincial data. Sooke, Colwood, and View Royal each had marginally higher birth counts than death counts. 

In James Bay and Fairfield, however—which had the highest death count out of any community health service area—there were triple the number of deaths than births in 2022. In Downtown Victoria, twice as many people died as were born. In Sidney, where the average age is considerably higher than elsewhere in Victoria, there were six deaths for every birth.

As we reported in 2021, affordability is one of the major factors causing people to forgo having children—which may hint at why the Westshore has more babies being born. With cheaper housing costs, it is a more attainable place for young people to start families. 

Victoria councillor (and father of two) Matt Dell told Capital Daily the city is lacking housing options suitable for families.

“Either families don’t start or they leave to find another place, whether that be Langford or Saskatchewan. So, we desperately need to think of ways to build more family-affordable housing—duplexes, triplexes, townhomes, rowhomes, ground-oriented apartments.”

He says the city also has a lack of amenities for families. Its outdated central library and outdated recreation centre are not doing the job anymore, he said. 

As one of the only young families on his street, Dell is often told by his elderly neighbours how much they enjoy hearing the kids playing. 

“I think the city just loses vibrancy when there’s not enough kids in the city,” he said. “It just adds so much richness to people’s lives to be surrounded by multi-generational communities, and right now, we’re missing out on that. If you go downtown, you don’t see a lot of kids thriving.”

Greater Victoria is still growing

Greater Victoria has grown at an average rate of about 1.5% for the past 10 years, but the majority of that growth has been from people moving to the city from elsewhere in Canada and the world. 

Out of BC municipalities, Victoria welcomed the second highest number of immigrants: 3,654 newcomers from July 1, 2021 to June 30, 2022. Vancouver welcomed far more immigrants, with 65,975.

Greater Victoria also has one of the highest numbers of people moving to the region from other provinces (3,569 people in 2021/22), and people moving to the region from elsewhere in BC (1,136 people in 2021/22). 

However, when looking at the past decade, the majority of the newcomers are in the 65+ age category, and there are nearly 30,000 more seniors in Victoria now than there were a decade ago. The population in the 45-54 age group actually declined more than 8% in that time. 

This is a loss of a lot of people in the prime earning years, and points to the necessity of immigration to keep jobs filled.  According to the BC Labour Market Outlook, immigrants filled about 31% of BC’s jobs in 2021, and that percentage is only expected to increase in the next 10 years.